“significant supply shortage” in the 4th quarter (AIE)

Paris: The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a “significant supply shortage” of oil in the 4th quarter of 2023 after announcing in early September the extension of cuts to Russian and Saudi production and exports in its monthly report on Wednesday.

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These cuts should result in “a substantial shortage“one million barrels per day for OPEC+ countries”,increase the risk” by “inconstancy“on the markets”, the IEA analyzes.

“Production cuts by OPEC+ members of more than 2.5 million barrels per day MBJ Abbreviation of Million(s) barrels (Crude oil) per dayknowing that a barrel is approximately equal to 159 liters or 42 US gallons. since early 2023 have so far been offset by increased supply from producers outside the alliance“, she notes, however.

The IEA mentions in particular the United States and Brazil that “an increase of 1.9 mb/d MBJ Abbreviation of Million(s) barrels (Crude oil) per dayknowing that a barrel is approximately equal to 159 liters or 42 US gallons. of non-OPEC+ production from January to August, while Iran, still under sanctions, increased its production by about 600,000 barrels per day“.

“But from September onwards, OPEC+ production cuts, led by Saudi Arabia, will lead to a significant supply shortage in the fourth quarter.” she added.

Already in August, the IEA warned of a new record in global oil demand, with an increase of 2.2 million barrels per day“ compared to 2022 “to reach 102.2 mb/d MBJ Abbreviation of Million(s) barrels (Crude oil) per dayknowing that a barrel is approximately equal to 159 liters or 42 US gallons. in 2023.

The agency maintained this forecast in its report, driven by the return of Chinese consumption, jet fuels and petrochemicals, a trend expected to continue into 2024 despite a slowdown in demand growth.

These IEA forecasts echo the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) monthly report published Tuesday: OPEC thus estimated that fourth-quarter demand could exceed crude oil supply by 3.3 million barrels, a first would be in 16 years. .

OPEC’s announcement understandably sent market prices soaring on Tuesday, with the two black gold benchmarks rising to their highest levels since November during the session.

Shortly before noon, Wednesday, the price of a barrel of Brent BRENT Brent, or North Sea crude, is a variant of crude oil that serves as a benchmark in Europe and is listed on the InterContinentalExchange (ICE), an exchange that specializes in energy trading. It became the first international standard for determining oil prices. extracted from the North Sea for delivery in November 0.54% to $92.56 and at the same time the barrel West Texas Intermediate (WTI WTI West Texas Intermediate (WTI), also called Texas Light Sweet, is a variant of crude oil that serves as a standard in determining the price of crude oil and as a raw material for oil futures contracts with the Nymex (New York Mercantile Exchange). , the stock exchange specialized in energy.) American, due in October, taken 0.60% has $89.38.

The impact on prices of this supply-demand imbalance is accentuated by a tense situation on the equity side, the IEA said.

Remark Oil: “significant supply shortfall” in Q4 (IEA)

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