France is silent about the presidential elections in Algeria!

Seen from Paris, two hypotheses are at work before this Algerian surprise of organizing early presidential elections. Either the French authorities were aware of and confirmed this constitutional coup of the Tebboune regime, or they were completely surprised like most Algerians. These two hypotheses, contradictory to each other, nevertheless find logical justifications.

The first is motivated by the fact that France, especially that of Emmanuel Macron who managed to establish an unprecedented form of complicity with the Tebboune regime, could not miss the great evolution in the political life of Algeria. Despite the desire for independence expressed through media posturing, nothing important happening in Algeria could escape the French radar. In this scenario, France would give its blessing to this acceleration of the Algerian political calendar in which the outgoing president tailors a program for personal convenience.

The second hypothesis, the French surprise hypothesis, arose because of recent events in Franco-Algerian relations. Over the past few weeks, both Paris and Algeria have engaged in a major communications exercise over President Tebboune’s planned visit to France. A period around the end of September and the beginning of October has even been set. Unless we think that the two presidents played a public comedy about this visit when they knew full well that it would not take place within the planned framework, it follows from this logic that at the time when the two presidents discussed the possibility of this visit, neither one nor the other knew that a few days later he will face the certainty of early presidential elections.

It must be said that, if the Algerian electoral program had not changed, Paris would have accepted the candidate Tebboune to nominate him for a second term. This positioning, however obvious and expected given the privileged relations that Macron maintains with Tebboune, is not unanimous in the Algerian military ranks. A second term for Tebboune is a source of controversy in Algeria. The best proof is that the military regime, in order to be swallowed up by the Algerians, is obliged to engage in constitutional distortions to cover up this coup.

Early presidential elections in Algeria, if held, will save Emmanuel Macron from having to publicly support Abdelamjid Tebboune for a second term and assume, in the eyes of the French and Algerians, a large part of the political and economic failure of this government. But it is also not excluded that this famous second term cannot pass as a letter in the mail as were the multiple renewals of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika until he had to give in to the impossibility of a fifth term.

Paris is watching the situation in Algeria like an explosive product on fire. More than any other country, with the exception of neighboring Morocco, France knows that a possible political explosion in Algeria could have major consequences for regional security.

Many think tanks in France and Europe regularly call on the countries of the Maghreb and the Mediterranean neighborhood to prepare for massive waves of Algerian immigration if the power dispute between military clans in Algeria turns into a settlement of accounts reminiscent of a dark decade that saw “uprooting” and conflict ” armed Islamic groups”.

These security concerns were unfortunately not alleviated by the decision to cut short Tebboune’s first term and prepare for a second under highly controversial terms. On the contrary, Algeria, already broken in terms of internal governance with glaring economic failures and liberticidal attitudes worthy of the fiercest military dictatorships, isolated regionally and internationally, is walking on a razor’s edge and could descend into chaos at any moment.

Regardless of the outcome of this political acceleration in Algeria with the likely re-appointment of Tebboune at the Al Mouradia Palace, Emmanuel Macron’s France is faced with the need for a frank dialogue with the Algerian power and a major clarification of the strategic choices of each side and which exerts enormous security pressure on the entire region.