drought is linked to El Niño more than climate change

A severe drought in southern Africa, which has hit harvests hard and pushed millions into hunger, is largely caused by the El Niño phenomenon rather than the effects of climate change, according to a World Weather Attribution (WWA) study on Thursday.

Studies around the world have shown that many extreme weather events are caused by a combination of climate change and El Niño, Joyce Kimutai, a researcher at Imperial’s Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, was quoted as saying in the study.

“The drought in southern Africa appears to be a rarer example of an event primarily driven by El Niño,” he points out.

The study by WWA, an international network of scientists that assesses the link between extreme weather events and climate change, includes Zimbabwe, Botswana, Zambia and Mozambique.

Researchers analyzed weather data for the period from December 2023 to February 2024, the peak of the region’s wet season, and found that rainfall increased despite warming.

But the level of effective precipitation, which especially contributes to groundwater recharge, remained at the same level, probably due to higher temperatures leading to more evaporation.

Furthermore, El Niño, which began in mid-2023 and could last until May, has increased the likelihood of severe droughts.

“The overall results show that El Niño, rather than human-induced climate change, was the main driver of drought in southern Africa this year,” the study said.

In recent months, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe have successively declared a state of national disaster due to drought, which has brought back the specter of famine.

The non-governmental organization Oxfam recently announced that more than 20 million people are facing hunger and malnutrition in southern Africa due to drought.