what scenarios after Pedro Sanchez’s shocking announcement

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s announcement last Wednesday of his possible resignation, following the opening of a judicial investigation against his wife Begoña Gómez, had the effect of a bombshell in the country.

As usual on all fronts, Sánchez, deeply considering a possible resignation, has since observed total silence.

The 52-year-old socialist surprised Spain by announcing his resignation on Wednesday after a Madrid court announced the opening of a preliminary investigation into influence peddling and corruption against his wife.

“I have to stop and think” in order to decide “if I have to continue to be at the head of the government”, defended Pedro Sánchez in a letter published on the social network X. He also promised a final decision for Monday, April 29.

Poker move or real resignation: here are the possible scenarios for Spain.

– Sánchez simply wants to cause an electric shock

Accustomed to public outbursts, the socialist put his resignation in the balance, in a four-page letter published on social networks, without informing even his closest ministers, according to some of them.

The unprecedented decision was intended, according to several analysts, to cause an electric shock and regain the initiative in front of the right-wing opposition, in the context of extreme polarization in Spanish political life.

In his letter, the socialist said on Wednesday “seriousness of attack” against him and his wife, the result, according to him, of a campaign of “harassment” and destabilization led by the right and the extreme right which “non-acceptance of election results”.

A campaign, he claims, that includes opening an investigation into alleged acts of influence peddling and corruption against Begoña Gómez following a complaint by an association close to the extreme right.

“Sánchez is a political animal”assesses Oriol Bartomeus, a political scientist at the Autonomous University of Barcelona, ​​and “he decided to attack” to try “change the rules of the debate”.

“He’s hitting the table” as part of “a strategy aimed at putting the spotlight where he wants it,” adds Paloma Roman, a political scientist at the Complutense University in Madrid.

– A question of trust

The prime minister – who suspended his public activities as he was due to launch a key regional campaign in Catalonia on May 12 on Thursday night – will make his decision to the press on Monday.

One of the possibilities mentioned by observers is the announcement of a vote of confidence on this occasion in order to show Spain that it and its minority government are still supported by the majority of the House of Representatives.

Catalan separatist Carles Puigdemont, an unpredictable ally of the government, also urged the prime minister to favor such an option, which carries fairly limited risks as it only requires positive votes from a relative majority of lawmakers.

Since the publication of Pedro Sánchez’s letter, most of his allies in parliament have given him unconditional support.

Thus, at a meeting of the prime minister and the entire left, the radical left party Podemos declared the attacks of the “political, media and judicial right”, while the Catalan separatists of the ERC assured that they would give their vote to the question of trust.

– Resignation with or without early elections

If the opposition has been condemning the “victimization” and “spectacle” of Pedro Sanchez since Wednesday night, the hypothesis of a broadcast cannot be completely ruled out, according to analysts.

“Sánchez’s closest advisers and the leadership of the Socialist Party will spend the next few days persuading him to stay,” but his “decision,” motivated by “personal” considerations, East “particularly difficult to predict”Antonio Barroso, an analyst at Teneo, estimates in a note.

If Sánchez eventually resigns after six years in power, the Socialist Party could propose that parliament inaugurate another person as head of government.

According to Paloma Roman, “Sanchez’s Hyper Personalization of Power” within the socialist party, however, it raises this hypothesis “difficult”.

Despite everything, the name that appears is that of the number two in the government, Maria Jesus Montero, the budget minister and former spokeswoman for the executive branch with a very political profile.

But “It will probably be difficult for him to gather a majority” in the House, according to Antonio Barroso, according to which the prime minister could instead resign and call early elections in which he would run again.

However, he will have to wait until the end of May to call them, as the Spanish constitution stipulates a period of one year between two calls for early interrogation. Legislative elections on July 23 were called for May 29, a day after the left’s debacle during the local elections.

However, this election is risky, according to Antonio Barroso, and polls give the People’s Party (PP, right) a position to win such elections.

Let us recall that the lawsuit against Begona Gomez was filed in Madrid by the union Manos Limpias (Clean Hands), a collective close to the extreme right, which represents employees in public services.

This refers in particular, according to the online media El Confidencial, to the ties established by Begoña Gómez with the Globalia group, the sponsor of the foundation where she worked, at a time when Air Europa, an airline belonging to Globalia, was negotiating with the Sánchez government to receive public assistance.

On Thursday, the prosecution asked for the investigation to be closed, but the judge presiding over the case has not yet revealed his intentions.