Climate change: dengue fever in the UK by mid-century!

Climate change could introduce dengue-carrying mosquitoes to parts of southern England by mid-century, health experts have warned.

Increasingly extreme weather conditions are expected to lead to more deaths from heat and cold, worse mental health, more vector-borne diseases and worsening health inequalities, according to a report published by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA).

The agency says the evidence base on the health impacts of climate change has “grown significantly” since its last assessment more than a decade ago.

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has set a goal of limiting global warming to less than 1.5°C (and no more than 2°C). These figures are expected to be significantly exceeded over the next 5–10 years, with projections of global temperature rises of more than 4°C considered plausible.

“Climate disruption will exacerbate existing social and health inequalities,” said Medscape UK News Mike Childs, Director of Science, Policy and Research, Friends of the Earth.

Things are getting hot

The UKHSA report, The Health Impact of Climate Change in the UK, outlines the most pessimistic scenarios for the public health impacts of global warming, leading to increased risks of floods, droughts, heatwaves and bushfires.

“Temperatures will likely continue to rise until at least mid-century, regardless of the degree of decarbonization in the coming decades,” warned Dr. Leah Berrang Ford, head of the University Center for Climate and Health Security. Climate and health safety).

Summer 2022 provided a glimpse of what could happen, with new UK temperature records recorded in Lincolnshire (40.3C), Wales (37.1C) and Scotland (34.8C).

About 3,000 additional deaths were recorded last summer, but that figure could increase 1.5 times in the 2030s and 12 times by 2070, according to the report.

Vector-borne diseases

Increasing temperatures can lead to the emergence of invasive mosquito species such as Aedes albopictus AND Culex, first settling in the UK, bringing with them vector-borne diseases such as chikungunya, dengue and Zika viruses, the report warns. “It’s scary to imagine a world where mosquitoes reach the UK,” said Dr Chloe Brimicombe, a climate scientist and extreme heat researcher at the University of Graz, Austria.

In a 2008 report, the authors stated that “it is likely that the range, activity and vectoring potential of many ticks and mosquitoes across the UK will increase by the 2080s.” However, more recent climate models indicate that this species Aedes albopictus “London could become prone to endemic dengue transmission by as early as 2060,” according to the report.

Floods, mental health and threats to fresh food imports

Changing rainfall patterns will put more people at high risk of flooding in the future. Repeated flooding is a “source of stress for families”, Ms Brimicombe stressed. The report highlights that flood survivors are at higher risk of depression, anxiety and post-traumatic stress.

Dr Munro Stewart, a GP and the Royal College of General Practitioners Scotland’s (RCGP Scotland) chief clinical officer for climate and sustainability, said the phenomenon was already being seen in GP practices across the UK. “We know that the mental health effects of an extreme weather event last for a long time,” he said. Medscape UK News. Patients also feel helpless, helpless and often hopeless in the face of the climate crisis and the lack of action to mitigate environmental crises, he said.

The report says the health impacts of climate change in the UK could also be affected by events overseas. Rosemary Green, a professor of environment, food and health and co-director of the Center for Climate Change and Planetary Health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told Science Media Center that sourcing fruit and vegetables in The UK is under threat “because almost 80% of these products are imported, often from countries that are highly vulnerable to climate change.”

Ms Green, who contributed to the UKHSA report, added: “If climate change makes healthy food harder to come by or more expensive, people will increasingly choose cheaper, less perishable foods that are likely to be less healthy for their health.

The worst consequences for our health are ‘still preventable’

According to Ms Ford, “climate change is not just a future health threat,” it is already present nationally and globally, “and these risks will increase.”

Professor Isabel Oliver, UKHSA’s chief scientific officer, stressed that many of the expected health impacts of climate change “can still be avoided” through mitigation measures, while others can be avoided if the measures needed to adapt are taken.

Reducing fossil fuel use could help reduce excess mortality due to air pollution, which amounts to 40,000 deaths a year, “not to mention GP consultations and hospitalizations,” Dr Stewart said.

Improving public transport, creating safe cycle lanes and reducing air pollution were just some of the measures needed, Mr Childs said. According to Dr. Stewart, harnessing the benefits of exercise can reduce premature mortality by 25%, and a sustainable and healthy diet can reduce premature mortality by 20%.

“There are significant opportunities for win-win solutions to combat climate change and improve health,” Mr. Ford said. “The health decisions we make today will determine the severity and extent of the climate impacts that today’s youth and their children will inherit,” she added.

This article was translated from Medscape.co.uk using several editorial tools, including artificial intelligence. Before publication, the material was checked by the editors.