possible scenarios after Pedro Sanchez’s shocking announcement – Telquel.ma

HAccustomed to public stunts, the socialist put his resignation in the balance, in a four-page letter published on social networks, without informing even his closest ministers, according to some of them. The unprecedented decision was intended, according to several analysts, to cause an electric shock and regain the initiative before the right-wing opposition, in the context of extreme polarization in Spanish political life.

In his letter, the socialist condemned Wednesday “seriousness of attack” against him and his wife Begonja Gomez, the fruit, according to him, of a campaign “harassment” and destabilization by the right and the extreme right which “they do not accept the election results”. A campaign, he claims, that includes opening an investigation into alleged acts of influence peddling and corruption against Begoña Gómez following a complaint by an association close to the extreme right.

“Sánchez is a political animal”assesses Oriol Bartomeus, a political scientist at the Autonomous University of Barcelona, ​​and “he decided to attack” to try “change the rules of the debate”. “He hits the table” as part of a “a strategy to put the spotlight where it wants to be”agrees Paloma Roman, a political scientist at the Complutense University in Madrid.

The prime minister – who suspended his public engagements when he was due to launch his campaign for key regional elections in Catalonia on May 12 on Thursday night – will announce his decision to reporters on Monday. One of the possibilities mentioned by observers is the announcement of a vote of confidence on this occasion in order to show Spain that it and its minority government are still supported by the majority of the House of Representatives.

Catalan separatist Carles Puigdemont, an unpredictable ally of the government, also urged the prime minister to favor such an option, which carries fairly limited risks as it only requires positive votes from a relative majority of lawmakers.

Since the publication of Pedro Sánchez’s letter, most of his allies in parliament have given him unconditional support. Thus, the radical left Podemos condemned the attacks “political, media and judicial law” against the prime minister and the entire left while the Catalan separatists of the ERC assured that they would give their vote to the question of confidence.

If the opposition denounced from Wednesday evening “victimization” and “show” According to analysts, the hypothesis of Pedro Sanchez’s resignation cannot be completely ruled out. “Sánchez’s closest advisers and the leadership of the Socialist Party will spend the next few days persuading him to stay” but is “decision”motivated by considerations “personal”East “particularly difficult to predict”Antonio Barroso, an analyst at Teneo, estimates in a note.

If Sánchez eventually resigns after six years in power, the Socialist Party could propose that parliament inaugurate another person as head of government. According to Paloma Roman, “Sanchez’s Hyper Personalization of Power” within the socialist party, however, it raises this hypothesis “difficult”.

Despite everything, the name that appears is that of the number two in the government, Maria Jesus Montero, the budget minister and former spokesperson of the executive branch with a very political profile. But “It will probably be difficult for him to gather a majority” in the House, according to Antonio Barroso, according to which the prime minister could instead resign and call early elections in which he would run again.

However, he will have to wait until the end of May to call them, as the Spanish constitution stipulates a period of one year between two calls for early voting. Legislative elections on July 23 were called for May 29, a day after the left’s debacle during the local elections. However, this election is risky, according to Antonio Barroso, and polls give the People’s Party (PP, right) a position to win such elections.