The OECD published its latest economic outlook, predicting stable global growth in 2024 and 2025. France is expected to grow 0.7% this year, but could lag the eurozone with 1.3% growth in 2025 .
ADVERTISEMENTAccording to’Organization for Economic Co-operation and DevelopmentThere are signs that the global outlook is beginning to improve, although growth remains modest.
“ The impact of tighter monetary policy continues, especially on housing and credit markets, but global activity appears relatively resilient, inflation is falling faster than expected and private sector confidence is recovering. “, indicates the report.
The OECD also emphasized thisImbalances between supply and demand in labor markets are decreasingwith unemployment remaining at or near historically low levels.
“ Real incomes are starting to recover, alongside moderating inflation, and trade growth has returned to positive territory. Developments continue to vary from country to country, with strong growth in the United States and many emerging market economies offsetting weaker performance in many advanced economies, particularly Europe. »
Overall inflation in OECD countries is expected to fall to 5% in 2024compared to 6.9% in 2023, and continue to decline to 3.4% in 2025. By the end of 2025, inflation in the OECD area is expected to be close to the 2% target of most central banks. This is likely due to falling energy and goods prices, but also to tighter monetary policy.
Growth in Britain and other major European economies is estimated to be modest
Growth in the G20 and other developed countries is expected to be significantly lower than that in developing countries United Kingdom is expected to experience only growth 0.4% in 2024 and 1% in 2025.
The eurozone is expected to grow by 0.7% in 2024 and 1.5% in 2025, while the France should also know a growth of 0.7% this yearbut could lag behind the eurozone with growth of 1.3% in 2025.
So is theItaly should also know a growth of 0.7% this year, to reach 1.2% in 2025.
L’Germanylong considered the “ sick man » of Europe, should register disappointing results this year also with a very modest growth of 0.2%. However, next year things could turn out much more positive for the countrywith the OECD expecting an increase of 1.1%.
On the other hand, theIndia should know A steady growth by 6.6% in 2024 and 2025Indonesia might experience one to get up by 5.1% in 2024 and then by 5.2% in 2025.
however, the Chinawhich continues to grapple with the lingering effects of an uncertain economy, high costs of living and declining demand post-pandemic, is expected to grow 4.9% this year, but only 4.5% next year.
In February 2024, the OECD unemployment rate was 4.9%, close to the lowest level since 2001.
OECD Secretary General Mathias Cormann said in a statement: “ The global economy has shown resilience, inflation has fallen in line with central bank targets and risks to the outlook have become increasingly balanced. We forecast stable global growth for 2024 and 2025, although growth is expected to remain below the long-term average.
“ Policy measures should ensure macroeconomic stability and improve medium-term growth prospects. Monetary policy should remain prudent, with the option to cut policy rates if inflation falls, fiscal policy should address growing pressures on debt sustainability, and policy reforms should stimulate innovation, investment and labor market opportunities, especially for women , young and older workers. . »
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