Huge decline in global fertility, birth rates are lowest in Europe and America

Demographic transformations continue at breakneck speed for two decades, s a massive decline in global fertility. This phenomenon, now represented in innovative cartography, offers a new vision of global geographic trends. This analysis shows that the shift to low levels of fertility is now affecting the entire planet, including regions that thirty years ago seemed most resistant to this change.

Global demographic context

Estimates by the United Nations indicate that the increase in life expectancy and demographic inertia will further increase the world population in the coming decades. However, declining fertility is expected to slow this growth. L’indicator of total fertility (ICF) fell from 5.1 in 1965 to 2.3 in 2021, with the decline accelerating after 2015.

Original cartography of the settlement

Most demographic maps use national data, which has a drawback eliminate variations within a country. Thus, a map based on circles proportional to the population of an area, rather than a state, represents a a more nuanced panorama. The areas represented have a population of 30 to 40 million inhabitants, providing a similar global analysis of countries while avoiding focusing on areas that are too small for which data is not readily available.

Current trends: the demographic revolution

Two-thirds of the world’s population is below the replacement threshold

Current data shows that TFR greater than 3 children per woman now they are found only in certain regions, mainly in Africa, the Middle East, Afghanistan and Pakistan. LevelsICF greater than 5 they exist only in the Sahel, Central Africa and Horn of Africa areas.

In contrast, in 152 of the 235 zones represented, 63% of the world’s population experiences fertility below the generational renewal threshold (2.1 children per woman). This trend is present in many Asian and European areas, as well as the American continent, India and Indonesia.

A radical change in two decades

A comparison of maps from 2000 and 2021 reveals the extent of the change. In 2000, the large area included Africa, the Middle East, the northern half of India and the Philippines. Twenty years later, the geography of fertility has completely changed. Indian shows striking contrasts between the southern and western regions, where the TFR is below 2.1, and the densely populated states of the Ganges Valley, where it remains between 2.3 and 3.0.

In America, TFR between 2.1 and 3 was common in 2000, except in metropolitan areas of southern Brazil and Canada. Today, these areas have also joined the group of regions of low fertility.

Global typology in 8 categories

Areas of very low fertility

THE areas with very low fertility (less than 1.7 children) make up 41% of the world’s population. Most of them (81 so-called type 1 zones) experienced a decline in the last two decades, while 16 type 2 zones slightly increased their fertility. Type 1 zones cover both developed countries (Europe, Japan, East and West coasts of the United States) and developing countries where fertility has drastically declined (South Korea, Taiwan, Turkey, Iran, Brazil).

Type 2 areas, mainly in Germanic Europe, Spain, Northern Italy, Central Europe, Ukraine and Russia, have very low fertility but are slightly increasing. This positive trend could be related to immigration or economic stabilization.

Areas of low and medium fertility

THE areas with low fertility (TFR between 1.7 and 2.1) represent 22.6% of the world population. They include areas of developed countries that have recently dropped their fertility below replacement (France, the interior of the United States, Australia) and developing regions that follow similar patterns (Iran, Turkey, China, India).

THE areas of average fertility (ICF between 2.1 and 3.5) make up 20.5% of the population. Type 4 zones show a transition slowed by religious or cultural inertia (Morocco, Egypt, Levant). Type 5 zones show rapid convergence towards national models (Andes, Guatemala, Bangladesh). Type 6 represents areas where the decline in fertility stopped after 2000 (Maghreb, Central Asia).

Areas of high fertility

THE areas of high fertility (more than 3.5 children per woman) now represent only 16.1% of the world’s population. These areas are experiencing a significant decline, more than 1 child per woman in 20 years. The drivers of the beginning of the decline areraising the age of marriageimproving girls’ education and increased use of contraception.

A demographic revolution is underway

The maps clearly show that convergence towards a low-fertility model is underway around the world. Almost two-thirds of the world’s population experience fertility levels below the replacement threshold. The decline in the southern regions has been so rapid that it exceeds the historical trends observed in the north.

This global evolution reflects profound social transformations underway: urbanization, increased schooling, access to contraceptive methods, and transformation of family structures. Although the challenges remain numerous, the decline in fertility is a clear indicator of major social changes, with long-term consequences for the world’s population and its geographic distribution.

Source : https://doi.org/10.3917/popsoc.618.0001